The Double Dip Could Be Your Big Win - 08.25.10
Today's Poll: How will you handle the double dip?
A. Bring it! More biz for me when the weak leave.
B. I guess I'll manufacture some deals!
C. That's it.. I'm out.
D. Double what?
Rate this Program
Ill Appraiser: (August 25, 2010 5:35pm)
Thanks 5pence. I needed that!
5pence: (August 25, 2010 5:01pm)
Charley, a new retiree-greeter at Wall-Mart, just couldn't seem to get to work on time. Every day he was 5, 10, 15 minutes late. But he was a good worker, really tidy, clean-shaven, sharp minded and a real credit to the company and obviously demonstrating their "Older Person Friendly" policies. One day the boss called him into the office for a talk. "Charlie, I have to tell you, I like your work ethic, you do a bang up job, but your being late so often is quite bothersome." "Yes, I know boss, and I am working on it." ''Well good, you are a team player. That's what I like to hear. It's odd though, you coming in late. I know you're retired from the Armed Forces. What did they say if you came in late there?" ''They said, "Good morning Admiral, can I get your coffee, sir?'''
5pence: (August 25, 2010 3:32pm)
opps - forgot the link : http://www.feesurvey.com/
5pence: (August 25, 2010 3:31pm)
Just got this in an e-mail. Appraisers, take the survey and don't quote 1980's fees. I think Appraisal Buzz is trying to establish their own 3rd party fees through this survey. Perosnally, I think reasonable and customary fees are what the AMC's are getting from the borrower for the appraisal - about $100-$200 more than I was charging. Anyway, appraisers - take the survey. Thanks
5pence: (August 25, 2010 3:27pm)
Rents have to drop because they're making a house of the same or similar size & utility cheaper to own and that makes those that don't care either way, WANT a house. Not everybody should have a home but because of the way it's set up everybody wants a home because it's cheaper than renting. Rents, like everything else in the phony economy, are artificially inflated. Thanks Bubble Ben & cronys. So now you have it set up so that those thinking about renting, won't-what happens when all these people you got into mortgage debt see their home values fall? More spending or QE? I don't think they have a clue how to get out of this. Their main concern was saving their buddies. America & the Constitution are founded on the precept that all men are created equal & endowed by their creator with certain inalienable rights-life, liberty & the pursuit of happiness. Where does it say some people are more equal than others? TBTF is anti-Constitution & anti-capitalist, no competition allowed. US is fkd
joe: (August 25, 2010 3:17pm)
@godlike: so I guess you're against veterans being able to get 100% financing, huh? I mean, with seller paying closing costs, cash to close could be literally zero on a VA purchase--in fact, for us, that's the norm.
GODLIKE: (August 25, 2010 2:38pm)
But don't mind me, I'm a realist, but more importantly I'm only one vote. By promising the masses some more bread to go along with their circus (fall of Rome reference) they can get many more votes, but guarantee themselves a crisis to solve in the future which will garner even more votes.
GODLIKE: (August 25, 2010 1:46pm)
I mean what about the maintenance and upkeep of a home vs. an apartment. If they are renting and can't save the DP then unless their house payment will be dropping how in the world will they come up with the cash to mow the yard, or fix a fence or replace a HWH. What if their taxes or insurance goes up next year, where will the money come from if they can't pay their rent right now and save funds for the most special thing they'll buy themselves their whole lives? A home is a big deal so if they are blase about it in the least maybe like Obama said, they should be renting.
GODLIKE: (August 25, 2010 1:44pm)
CTC is and SHOULD be a bar that determines if someone gets a home. I'm a firm believer that, for the most part, if they can't save the money to get a home then they aren't committed enough to the whole idea of home ownership to deserve a home. If they can't come up with 3.5% you've got to ask yourself if they'll be able keep a home once they've got it.
frankgaray: (August 25, 2010 1:12pm)
BonoVox - you're right.. that's how it should be used. But it's a public blog. If any one gets a little too out of hand we can dump them. Personally today I think we can see who's got the right stuff, and who needs to reconsider what they do... Enjoy!
PAUL WILLINGHAM: (August 25, 2010 11:45am)
Where do these buyers get the down and closing costs? it's not the DTIs that stop buyers it's the CTC (Cash to Close). Now i have developed a way to produce that CTC. I'm not sure i should share it, because ...well I'm greedy and selfish. Or scared and broke. Or both.
jcollins: (August 25, 2010 11:22am)
BONO VOX: You are right. I apologize. GREAT SHOW TBWS.
neal: (August 25, 2010 11:21am)
guys...where in So. California can you find a home for $200,000???
Bono Vox: (August 25, 2010 11:17am)
I haven't heard such a smarmy, condescending, know-it-all since freshman poli sci. Thank you for the trip down memory lane. Nothing helps others like name calling! F&B, correct me if I'm wrong, but this is a forum for real estate professionals to work together in a positive fashion to better our businesses - it's not Snarky.com?
Clulessdad: (August 25, 2010 11:17am)
What is Elliott's wave theory? I know Maxwell has 4 equations for the wave theory of light, coupled with Schroedingers equations. But what has Elliott done?
jcollins: (August 25, 2010 10:54am)
I only got one. :) I agree with you. waste of time.
Koolaidspitter: (August 25, 2010 10:49am)
I just originated 3 new deals while you guys were yappin'....just sayin'
Koolaidspitter: (August 25, 2010 10:48am)
I just originated 3 new deals while you guys were yappin'....just sayin'
jcollins: (August 25, 2010 10:45am)
REALY?: 48 RE agents NOT sending you business???? Because you would not write a bad book of business. RIGHT. Because you educate everyone that comes to you that they are idiots to buy in this market. You seem educated in some areas but, not so much in others. But, remember educataion is not always correct education. They fact that someone will only believe what they are taught is not really educated. Got to go write a bad book of business. it was fun.
joe: (August 25, 2010 10:43am)
(ran out of space) Please read what I wrote about trading commodity futures and currencies. For content, this time. Now I am indeed going to go to work. Have fun, y'all.
joe: (August 25, 2010 10:41am)
I am going to make one more post on this subject, then get to the work people count on me to do. Of COURSE real estate is connected to and influenced by other markets. You are trying to ascribe to me things I did not say or imply. I think you state your attitude quite plainly. Loan origination is something you do for "just extra income." you believe real estate will be worth 10 to 30 cents on the dollar, yet you now claim to have a large number of Realtors and others sending you business. Given what you have said, and your lack of faith in the viability of this industry, I wonder why they'd be entrusting their precious clients to a part-timer with a very negative outlook on the industry that provides their livelihood. As for the effect of any leisure-time activities any of us might engage in, do you *really* fail to see the difference between watching television or going to church and trying to do loan origination on a part-time basis, like having a paper route to make some extra coin?
wayne: (August 25, 2010 10:13am)
SWSWSW...Some will, some won't, so what! This is true about thriving in today's market as well as most everything in life.
really?: (August 25, 2010 10:08am)
"used to" trade....operative statement for someone who does not grasp elliot wave theory at a basic level. hence you write mortgages.
really?: (August 25, 2010 10:01am)
oh joe. i have a team. they are great. i have 48 realtor partners who send business along with other professionals and past clients blah blah blah. elliot wave theory is best used for non-leveraged cash market equivalents. per your post you clearly feel that r.e. operates in its own market space and is not connected to other financial markets, correct? or did i not understand you properly? as for how trading impacts my clarity, professionalism and volume in loans, please articulate how you arrived at this premise. that's quite a leap in logic. also, elliot wave theory is not even related to the efficient market theory. it is not dependent on an organized market on any level that is conscious. it does have form, as indicated by waves, but it is not organized in the manner in which you typed. does your watching tv each night diminish your duties as a professional? does church? watching a kid's ballgame? what are you talking about?
really?: (August 25, 2010 9:54am)
Oh no!!! i have been exposed by cut rate hacks who should sell cars and who can not man up and concede the moral high ground! Oh no! really team, the market fundamentals are terrible and to deny this is either foolish, ignorant or criminal. it the crime is committed in massive #s then you'll be fine. you are running in the herd and that provides protection for your acts. and for those who can't handle honest opinions and need fluff on their posts...go to church for that vibe.
joe: (August 25, 2010 9:52am)
Where to start, where to start...okay, let's start with "Really's" apparent adherence to Elliot Wave theory (Yes, I know what it is. I have used it in trading commodity futures and currencies). Elliot Wave is *technical* analysis. That assumes an "organized market," which real estate decidedly is not. Technical analysis, whichever method one uses, may be useful in commodity, currency and securities trading, but it is arguably not applicable to a market like real estate. But let's say he's right. I am wondering what kind of despicable human being would enable people to buy or refinance homes that will soon be worth, in his belief, 10 to 30 percent of their present value. Thinking about it, I can see why he'd only be working in the mortgage business part-time, for "extra income," as he says. Anyone who claims that their lack of commitment to this profession--and by extension to their clients--doesn't impact how well they are doing their jobs is just smoking some strange sh*t.
GODLIKE: (August 25, 2010 9:40am)
LESS COMPLAINING AND MORE WORK! If you can't be constructive and helpful then at least keep it to yourself. Some of us are trying to make a living out here.
JasonEye: (August 25, 2010 9:29am)
@really? At no point in my comment did I assume that my way of writing a good book of business is the only way. Only a naive person would assume that. However, it is extremely naive of you to assume that I write deals that should not be written or that my skill set does not allow for an exit strategy. It is also ridiculous for you to assume that I am solely dependent on the mortgage industry for my livelihood. It seems to me that all the assumptions are in your post! It would be interesting to know what your idea of a good book of business is...seeing that you have condemned purchases and refinances in your previous posts. But I am asking because I wouldn't want to assume what your tactics are :)
5pence: (August 25, 2010 9:22am)
Unsustainable - all of it, but they're ready for more QE to keep alive institutions that by all rights should have died over a year ago. This country was founded on "equality" and yet the bosses have decided that some people and corporations are more equal than others. Liars. "A Zombie Bank is a financial institution whose liabilities outweighs it assets, making its net worth “less than zero.” ZBs continue to operate because of the implicit or explicit government guarantee — along with truckloads of taxpayer monies. Consider the two biggest Zombie banks — Citigroup, and Bank of America.They have each received $45 billion in capital from the US government — far more than either bank is worth. Additionally, the US had guaranteed up to 90% of the bad assets each zombie is holding — $250 billion and $306 billion respectively. The term comes from Japan’s lost decade following their real estate bubble. The Japanese kept their zombie banks alive, delaying the eventual recovery by a decade".
GODLIKE: (August 25, 2010 9:19am)
Should have proofed my post. It wasn't 14 loans this past week, it was 14 loans in the past 2 weeks. That's OK, I'll take that. One a day is alright by me.
GODLIKE: (August 25, 2010 9:17am)
Speaking of generating business from people who wouldn't normally be buying. I've picked up 14 loans this past week by marketing on a personal level to my Realtors and Builders. Instead of asking for business from their customers I've been asking them for their own personal refinances. I've extolled the equity build from the lower term loans as a benefit rather than just the cost to refi vs. the lowered payment calc. I've only done 1 30 year loan. All the rest are from 25 years down to 10 years with 20 year notes being the most common. Now they are getting to see first hand our service and I feel it should up the percentage of their customer's loans that come our way because they will be able to say they used me for their own personal loan. One of those personal endorsements that doesn't work. The reason I took this route was I remembered all the good interest rates I missed out on because I was working with clients and forgot about my self.
jcollins: (August 25, 2010 9:05am)
Really??; I thought you said you new this business inside and out. But, your comments prove differently. I was going to listen to you but, now I can see through you. GOOD LAUGH. I hope you learn more about trading then you have about the Loan business.
bevkendall: (August 25, 2010 8:58am)
Sandmat - incorrect. That income came to a 32% "housing" ratio leaving room for debt.
really?: (August 25, 2010 8:58am)
atta boy jcollins! there's the spirit. a refi could potentially help these folks on the way down, that is, unless you are one of the folks who think payment drops are A OK even when you are ripping them off on the equity side. go for it. in a dying industry there are few ways to make money honestly. step outside the r.e. box gang. by not doing so you are using a slice of information to execute your decisions and it is going to devastate families/individuals. Collins....good lord.
really?: (August 25, 2010 8:55am)
Oooh Jasoneye, you are witty. you operate under the assumption that the way i write a good book of business is to do what you do or else i can not write good business. very myopic jasoneye. oh, one more detail: i trade currency at night which does not impact how i carry out my duties in loans. in facy, it makes me less dependent on loans for a living. loans are just extra income and i know the business inside and out. so now, using your flawed logic, maybe you need to exit the business as you seem to write deals that should not be written because you know you are dependent on doing so because your skill set does not provide you an exit strategy.
jcollins: (August 25, 2010 8:52am)
Really: You win, you changed my mind with all your facts. I will go tell everyone to let their house go now before the next big hammer falls. Because with your 10-30 cents on the dollar. That would be the only right thing to do. Everybody, stop refinancing your clients and get referrals form the BK Atorneys.
really?: (August 25, 2010 8:52am)
Elliot Wave Theory. Before Collins goes and googles it and reads the 1st 3 entries, dig a bit deeper. Come on people, flex some intelligence and do not simply sample news, videos and blather that conforms to your personal conclusions rather than facts. OR, you can try to re-inflate a bubble that still has not deflated enough on historical terms. We need to endure a severe bear market contraction because the national and world economy have a massive debt overhand that can NOT be serviced on any level. R.E. is included in this equation and it needs to crash and to burn out completely before re-establishing itself for the long run i.e. the next 75 years of growth.
JasonEye: (August 25, 2010 8:47am)
@ Really? If you truly believe that home prices will be 10-30 cents on the dollar then why are you still in the industry...or on this blog for that matter?? Shouldn't you be out looking for a new career??
mrs homer: (August 25, 2010 8:45am)
My friends and past clients kids, parents, neices, nephews, cousins, neighbors are all going to get asked to buy a house. AND buy a second one to rent to their friends with less than stellar credit.
GODLIKE: (August 25, 2010 8:39am)
DOOM & GLOOM! DOOM & GLOOM! Not you Frank & Brian but all the first posters. They whine that maybe those people MIGHT have too much debt or they PROBABLY have too low of a credit score instead of finding a few and seeing the real numbers. Personal debt has been falling for over a decade and then there's that Ramsey fellow that so many people are trying to emulate. The point is don't sit here on your porcelain throne and tell us it won't work till you try it. So you talk to 5 and only 1 can buy, there's that 1 manufactured loan B&F are talking about.
sandmatt: (August 25, 2010 8:39am)
$13.25/hour with no other debt?
JasonEye: (August 25, 2010 8:39am)
At least Joe is on the right page :)
JasonEye: (August 25, 2010 8:38am)
At least Joe is on the right page :)
really?: (August 25, 2010 8:35am)
by 2016 homes across the nation will be price at between 10-30 cents on the buck. jcollins: your ignorance gets in the way of your market study and it seems you have swallowed the media hype that we are near some bottom. in the 1000 words allowed on this forum, can you articulate why you feel values are at bottom or near bottom? silly loan officer. run along now and jam people into homes. it's a joke that these people will be your long term clients. they will be underwater and then leave their home down the road. they will love you :-)
jcollins: (August 25, 2010 8:31am)
JOE: Here Here.
jcollins: (August 25, 2010 8:30am)
REALLY?? WHAT???? Are you saying that we should not help clients that want to buy now? What area do you work in? You make it seem like if any LO helps their client purcahse in this market, they are crooks. Some people should not buy, but this is a great market for the long term purcahse. Maybe not in your area.
joe: (August 25, 2010 8:25am)
Criminy, people! I was watching F&B's show this morning and getting pretty pumped up. What they are saying is SPOT ON! You can sit and wait for the occasional marginal deal to come your way, with the mindset that it's probably not likely to happen...OR...you can go out and MAKE deals happen, and shepherd them through to funding. When I read these comments this morning, my jaw dropped. Sure, there are people who are buried in debt, whose back-end debt ratios are too high. That's no different from "normal" times. Honest to God. I don't think I have ever seen so many crybabies in one place all year. Quit bitching and figuring out all the reasons things are so bad, and just get out of the fookin' business. Either do THIS job, or find one you CAN do. Many of us are having the best year in several years. If you aren't, either figure out why, or get the hell out. Now GET OFF MY LAWN.
Elite: (August 25, 2010 8:19am)
Work with the poor & become one of them.
really?: (August 25, 2010 8:18am)
Really? I am losing all faith in this business. This massive push to fill a pipeline with new buyers at any cost is ONLY right IF you feel this market has indeed settled at new lows or is close to new lows and IF the market will not leave these new buyers completely hosed after they move in i.e. completely upside for 10 years meaning they can not pay a 6% Realtor bite to sell and which leaves them selling short if anything happens. Granted there is a small and select group of buyers for whom a purchase may make sense but it's a tiny minority at this point. One can not count on a person to do the correct thing when his/her livelihood is dependent on doing the incorrect thing for a client. Complete garbage everyone. Start making better decisions or get out of the business. Clean up your act.
tjandt: (August 25, 2010 8:05am)
I love this topic today guys! Great job...it's time people stop hiding under their desks, worrying about what might happen, when now is the time to work twice as hard to build a client base at this ridiculously low values for longer term success. EVERYONE...just think about this: "If you build your book of business, helping as many new home buyers or real estate investors buy homes when they are at HISTORIC LOWS, just think about how many referrals you'll get in the future when these happy homeowners see equity growing in their property, not to mention the cash out refi boom that will likely come again in the future (as it always unfortunately does...) when values are popping again. It probably won't be for about 10 to 20 years...but if you're in the business as a career and want to build a long term 'BUSINESS', not just trying to crank out 'TRANSACTIONS', this is the time to plant the seeds of eternal prosperity for you and your team of co-workers, bosses or employees...GODSPEED!
Nuke 'em Until They Glow and Shoot them In the Dark: (August 25, 2010 7:47am)
If I were in Tulsa OK I'd be saying what I've been saying all along. We're in a Depression not a Recession. Saying we're in a recession is just a bunch of political hogwash. Deal with it and move on!
Koolaidspitter: (August 25, 2010 7:47am)
Try using the FHA 5/1 ARM to get the DTI down. When you run the numbers the 5 year ARM really isn't as scary as people think. By the time it could adjust the principal balance would be so much lower that the paymetn really won't go up a whole lot even if the rate adjusts the maximum amount...run the numbers. You'll be surprised.
DanSchweihs: (August 25, 2010 7:41am)
The buyers might be right. With housing deflation at 5% and interest rates at 4.5%, the inflation adjusted interest rate or what in the 1970’s was called the “real interest rate” is 9.5%. That is historically unprecedented. At 9.5% real interest rate, a smart buyer would wait. So we are all going to wait for the buyer to act ratinally? Buyers are behaving very rationally right now. They are responding to an insane set of circumstances. For at least the last two years, buyers have seen their hard-earned downpayment (their “skin in the game) get wiped out. Individual wanting the American Dream have been proven to be dreamers.
JasonEye: (August 25, 2010 7:38am)
It's a shame that most people have such a negative outlook on a positive message. Imagine where you could be if you stopped looking at all the reasons why something won't work. Find a solution to your problem...or find a new career. The choice is yours!!
Evil Genius: (August 25, 2010 7:14am)
Gusee that works with Tecate or Corona os Dos Equis my friend!
Evil Genius: (August 25, 2010 7:13am)
At first glance I thought the Mortgage Currentcy banner was a Mexican flag
upstatemortgageguy: (August 25, 2010 7:10am)
My concern with creating a homebuyer is that you want them to own a home more than they want to, and that is where defaults come into play. I would prefer buyers want to want -not just find out they can and say, "o might as well". These are the people that will walk away the minute there is a problem. Also they may need to have some closing costs and downpayment money as well which may be tough to save at 55 grand per year
joecolorado: (August 25, 2010 7:07am)
stevenw88-I am sorry to read about your problems with the industry,but its still the best job in the world.Try and hang in there as the market will correct itself and Cuomo's madness will be rectified.However dont be complacent,try and join other local appraisers to make the powers that be listen to the new appraisers and experienced appraisers problems.You are not alone and the idiot that is dong 47 appraisals a month for $150 apiece working 90 hour weeks needs to be educated in what he is doing to this profession.He also is working for about $14/Hr,but he IS the problem as he is a selfish moron and he needs to be stopped as its ruining it for all of us.
frankgaray: (August 25, 2010 7:03am)
Tecate... Come on guys, really? Well it's a good thing that 63% of the peeps that took the poll question know that you just have to tap on more shoulders, but it's out there. Shake it off! Get to it! There are plenty of people out there with income and credit that don't know they can buy. Quit the sniveling and go find 'em! Are you in sales or what?!?
jcollins: (August 25, 2010 7:03am)
to all the post that have come up with there own obstacles: Change your mind set. yes, some will not qualify, but some will. 20 can'ts to 1 Can. Then be happy to get the can'ts. Because you are that much closer to the yes. Also, you are building your business with these Can'ts. Show them how the can. 1-2 years and they will. Let's go people. GREAT SHOW GUYS. it is a wake up call.
dcfinance1: (August 25, 2010 6:57am)
The Barney Frank thing was great! At least with all the industry downers, there is still BEER. I did not see Corona,,,what was that? Papst?
TD Hawk: (August 25, 2010 5:59am)
"Making" ain't "clearing". But decent thought about thinking creatively, unfortunately the Middle Class Golden Goose is cooked so ownership isn't realistic for the indebted masses.
TD Hawk: (August 25, 2010 5:59am)
"Making" ain't "clearing". But decent thought about thinking creatively, unfortunately the Middle Class Golden Goose is cooked so ownership isn't realistic for the indebted masses.
TD Hawk: (August 25, 2010 5:58am)
"Making" ain't "clearing". But decent thought about thinking creatively, unfortunately the Middle Class Golden Goose is cooked so ownership isn't realistic for the indebted masses.
A/CProperties: (August 25, 2010 5:18am)
Good morning everyone, njloanman, that's right that's me informing myself white watching TBWS. I completely agree with stevenw88 it's tough out there, however never give up to your dreams. It might be a matter of double, some times triple work but we have to be constant and prepared. Thanks TBWS
JHughis: (August 25, 2010 5:17am)
You guys are forgetting one thing its not the money its all about credit no one has the credit scores to get a home in this day and age most people that had good credit dont have it any more you should see what the banks and credit card companies are doing to people its like they wait for them to be 1 day over 30 days and BAM they now have a 1 x 30 I personaly paid off a car loan early for a lesser amount and BOA reported it as paid for lesser amount (charge off) and it wasnt even a charge off and I have been fighting with them and the credit reporting agencys for month about this now I even have a letter from BOA stating as to how it would appear on credit (leagaly paid in full for lesser amount) but it dosent matter they are still reporting it as a charge off and it was never late or a charge off I called and ask if I paid it off right now what they would except nothing was ever told to me that the difference would be charged off and I have a letter to prove showed to credit agancy
njloanman: (August 25, 2010 4:36am)
always good ideas,content,etc. watching the daily. entertaining way to start day while having breakfast. BUT,,,,,I am in total agreement with above comments today, especially Stephanie,....she must know my clients
stevenw88: (August 25, 2010 4:21am)
You guys made me feel really bad this morning with the $13.50 an hour comments. I have been a Trainee Appraiser in Florida for the last three years. I use to make $13.50 an hour, or more, working in the field. My income this year does not pay for my E&O insurance, my continuing education, or the cost of my license that is due in November. I have no place in this industry anymore as a Trainee. I have taken a job, luckily, cleaning pools for $10.00 an hour. I am very close to hanging up my dream and just being a service worker in Florida. I tried, but I just cannot wait for the market to correct itself. I wish I made $13.00 an hour.
tcsenter: (August 25, 2010 1:54am)
Your marketing message and execution is brilliant! If these good people had a 620+ FICO, and the back-end ratio wasn't 74%, then we could be in business. Give it 10 years and we ought to be able to make a living again.
stephanieham: (August 25, 2010 1:24am)
Hmmm... I like your motivational message guys. Really, I do however although I am swamped with applicants in this income bracket; my conversion issue is many of those $14/hr employees also have massive car payments, boat payments and credit card debt making the back ratio the true issue. Folks in these situations tend to have un-realistic expectations of their re-payment capacity. I end up being a life coach and teaching economics 101 once I pull credit. It's more a matter of what you SPEND not so much what you make. Just my thoughts...