Shocking Insights From NAR Economist! - 09.03.10 | Vincent K. Mohr : First Priority Financial, Inc. : Fairfield, CA

[email protected]: (September 08, 2010 8:18am)

Same Mr. Yun from the NAR who predicted in April of 2007 that prices will see an increase of 4% through the end of 2007 and actually repeated the same prediction again (4% increased values) for 2008??????

5pence: (September 03, 2010 6:06pm)

VQ, from the height of the boom. It's actually slightly less than 20% down. I'm in Washington State, near Seattle. Some areas are more down than others just like, block to block, values could be increasing, decreasing or stable.

5pence: (September 03, 2010 6:01pm)

TAVMA sent a letter to the Fed saying they want a halt put on R & C for appraisers. They said that the VA fee schedule is the only real one and that those fees are inflated! We should send hundreds of letters sent to Bernanke attesting to the fact that R & C fees are what the AMC's are getting from the borrower and it's on every single HUD-1 !!! TAVMA letter to the Fed : http://appraisalnewsonline.typepad.com/files/tavma-fee-objection-letter-8-2010.pdf Bernanke's address (thanks TAVMA) : Chairman Ben S. Bernanke Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 20th Street and Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20551 I notice TAVMA sent it by USPS Express Mail LOL!! Are they feeling a little desperate? hahahaahaaah.

abappraisal: (September 03, 2010 5:19pm)

F & B - You may have already seen this, but if not, you shouldn't miss it. This should be discussed on TBWS and anyone who cares about the appraisal industry should be writing a letter to Big Ben. This letter is replete with lies and distortions and is an outrage and another example of TAVMA's underhanded plot to make the AMC's rich off the backs of the appraisers. Here's the link: http://www.tavma.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=238&Itemid=23

Valuequestor: (September 03, 2010 2:33pm)

5Pence: Your home is worth 20% less from what point in time? Where do you live (general area)?

dirtygreygoose: (September 03, 2010 2:16pm)

Good depiction of the Arizona market for loan originators. Now, let's apply those same #'s with the Dodd-Frank Act and see where we stand? This needs some real attention and reform before it hits the streets on 04/2011.

Shugenja: (September 03, 2010 12:23pm)

Does anyone really think that all of those loan officers out there that havent passed or taken the NMLS test are really jsut going to go away? I must say that such an assertion seems naive to me at best. I would submit for your consideration that they are simply going to work for a Broker that will allow them to work without a license and submit the files under their Broker's license or under the license of another loan originator who has passed the NMLS test. This test isn't going to solve fraud because the people who were already working without a license aren't going to suddenly decide "uh oh! Now I had better go get a license" when they have been working without one for years and every broker I know of, except me, is willing to do it and worse!

Lee in Santa Rosa: (September 03, 2010 11:52am)

Seriously friends, can anybody shed any light on these questions: What's the difference between an Ag loan, on property where the farmer lives, and an owner occ home loan? Number of productive acres? Income on Schedule F? In the new Frank & Dodd Bill, does a "residence" mean any SFR, including rentals and second homes? Have a great weekend.

5pence: (September 03, 2010 11:27am)

How dare they blame "we the people"! We are inviolate, immaculate! I'm out, my rant for the day. Have a great Labor Day weekend all !!

5pence: (September 03, 2010 11:21am)

An add to my 10:17 post. The value of my home is 20% less, the value of my 401k is 30% less, why isn't everything else 20-30% cheaper? I still see prices going up at the store. The reason? It's that very nice set of crutches that keeps breaking and needs replacing due to the weight of the grossly overfed banksters using them and the Fed continually feeding them from our trough. Hmm, the Fed. How apropo! Well fed I'd say, to the point of bursting the banksters at the seams with the fruits of our labors.

cpappraisal: (September 03, 2010 11:03am)

lendershop-Are you serious with that statement? Did you really say that in your outloud voice? Letting people get loans that they don't qualify for is what got us in this mess why would that be a solution when if they don't qualify no matter what kind of loan you put them in will lead to default?

5pence: (September 03, 2010 11:01am)

For those of you that might have been offended by my comment of a few days ago that I didn't consider military service a real job, I have this to say. Even in the ads they say that military service is not a job, it's an adventure - right? I stand by my comments that 4 star Generals, Superior Court Judges and the rest of Obama's cabinet, around 92% overall, have no idea how private sector jobs are created. If the problem was unemployed Judges, 4 star Generals and the rest of the cabinets private sector "careers" were the 20% unemployed in our economy, that Obama has the right cabinet to fix the problem. That is not the case. Why didn't he add joe the plumber to his cabinet? That would make more sense than who he's surrounded himself with to fix an unemployment problem they have no clue about. How about high speed rail? How about rebuilding bridges that are falling apart all across this country? Infastructure, infastructure, infastructure. Maybe if we say it enough he'll listen? Jobs

rhodyloans: (September 03, 2010 10:49am)

Hey guys, if there are loan officers who have or are leaving the business, do you really think they maintained a database?!!

lendershop: (September 03, 2010 10:27am)

This whole economic mess started in real estate and will end in real estate. Part of the solution is to allow people to refinance without proving income and without getting an appraisal, just like the FHA streamline.

5pence: (September 03, 2010 10:17am)

I don't know, just heard on CNBC that the Fed is on watch to make sure prices don't fall - meaning on everything. Is that what we want? I'd like to see gas 30% cheaper and food and rent and movies and and and etc etc etc

5pence: (September 03, 2010 10:14am)

Off-Topic but important-Election reform bill before both houses: The Fair Elections Now Act (S. 752 and H.R. 1826) was introduced in the Senate by Sens. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) and in the House of Representatives by Reps. John Larson (D-Conn.) and Walter Jones, Jr. (R-N.C.). The bill would allow federal candidates to choose to run for office without relying on large contributions, big money bundlers, or donations from lobbyists, and would be freed from the constant fundraising in order to focus on what people in their communities want. Summary of the bill is here : http://fairelectionsnow.org/sites/default/files/Fair%20Elections%20Now%20Act%20Summary.pdf Support fair elections here: http://fairelectionsnow.org/take-action . This is the bill proposed, looks good imo. http://fairelectionsnow.org/about-bill

Lee in Santa Rosa: (September 03, 2010 10:01am)

Can anybody tell me how the feds can justify regulating a private money broker who is arranging a loan between two people in the same town? We have flushed owner occ lending completely. Too bad for the consumer as we were about 2 to 4% below the market. Anybody know the line between an Ag loan, on property where the farmer lives, and an owner occ home loan? Number of productive acres? Income on Schedule F? AgCredit Bank uses 25 or more acres? In the new Frank & Dodd Bill, does a "residence" mean any SFR (1to4) or all homes, including rentals and second homes? Does anybody really understand this crap? We should have all refused, in mass, to sign-up.

dirk2290: (September 03, 2010 9:40am)

FLANMAN: Look at my previous 2 posts....... should help you out

Flanman: (September 03, 2010 9:31am)

Out of the 15,000 L.O.s that did not get a NMLS Lic,How many are still working under someone elses number or how many went to the banks that do not require a lic?

Tobby: (September 03, 2010 9:03am)

No one is moving in Arizona. They are all upside down. Only foreclosures sales are getting financed. A better measure of LO licensing would be to look at non-bubble states in middle America.

f.eric.williamson: (September 03, 2010 8:58am)

great concept help those who can help themselves!

c21actgp: (September 03, 2010 8:46am)

Absolutely right! We need to get those people who can qualify in a home now.

dirk2290: (September 03, 2010 8:43am)

Hey Dan, check out my post I put in right before yours. Also: As disgusting as this may sound, I know of some Mortgage Brokers who are playing Russian Roulette with unlicensed LO's. I kid you not. I am personally licensed, and was the first one with my company that got their licsens out of 200 licensed LO's now. But, being in the biz for over a decade, I know of colleagues of where they currently work where there is some funny stuff going on. So......, the big question for me, is when will the dust truly settle and when will their be some policing of horse manure activities, so to put a top of these unlicensed LO's skating around the system.

Daggone: (September 03, 2010 8:39am)

Help the home owners who are in their homes, have been making payments regularly for the last 24 months. Let them refi at today's great rates. Who needs an appraisal. So what if his house is worth less, he is paying for it! This is an absolute no brainer. Let the borrower lower his P&I, or get to a fixed rate, or shorten the term. Concerned about value, refi the balance owed plus interest, let them bring cash to close. Free up some money for consumers.

DanSchweihs: (September 03, 2010 8:35am)

You forgot to count the unlicensed loan officers at the banks. You also did not include REFIs in your numbers, which would make them quite higher. Maybe twice as large. As you know, the uneven playing field between banks and independent mortgage companies subsidizes the too-big-to-fail banks. On a level field an independent mortgage company (with little to no overhead when compared to a bank) would have a comparative advantage. That low cost would make its way to the customer if free competition were allowed. What if the three largest real estate brokers in the US received a subsidy (and there agents did not have to be licensed) and all independent real estate brokers were put at a competitive disadvantage. How would that serve the customer?

dirk2290: (September 03, 2010 8:33am)

@ Frank and Brian, the numbers you used for AZ are a little off. Let me explain to you, as I work here in AZ. We were told that in the pinnacle of the boom, there were 18,000 Originators, including Fed Chaterted Bank LO's. We were told as of 01/01/2010, tere were roughly 10,000 LO's statewide including the exempt Fed chartered LO's. Your numbers are correct as far as how many are licensed, roughly 3,000, but there are another approx 3,000 that are exempt working for the Fed charted banks. So, while numbers have changed, just not nearly significant as your data says.

pazookie: (September 03, 2010 7:58am)

7% say low to moderate income... My lordy... WHO ARE THESE 7%ers????

JerryinIdaho: (September 03, 2010 7:31am)

In Idaho we have also had a dramatic decrease in broker LO, but in reality, the ones who can't pass the test, fail due to bad credit or had foreclosures in last 3 year are just going to the bank as lone officer.

BERUT: (September 03, 2010 7:03am)

David C, I thought the same thing, that the numbers may not be accurate but the message is. We have a lot less competition, there is business to be had, if you just go out and get it. Darwinian Origination: Survival of the Fittest. Jcollins, Me too, I tried to sign up twice and did not receive a confirmation. Fear and Greed the two greatest motivators, greed got us here and now fear is in place. Eventually, greed will always win over fear. That will be when we will see all these over lays, tight guidelines, etc, start to disappear. When one lender starts the process the rest of the dominos will fall. Until then, we work hard to survive, outlast the competition, and be there when we can walk on the sunny side of the street.

frankgaray: (September 03, 2010 7:00am)

We'll get that figured out for you jcollins.

jbuffington: (September 03, 2010 6:51am)

I have absolutely seen an increase in my volume and I am certain that it has to do with my competitors failing to get licensed!

jcollins: (September 03, 2010 6:49am)

Harsh words before the start of a great three day weekend. You can either take the good advice or not. but, try to put on a happy face it will help you and clients.

Bono Vox: (September 03, 2010 6:36am)

If those losers had databases, they'd still be in the business!

jcollins: (September 03, 2010 6:34am)

FRANK&BRIAN: I signed up fo rthe webgogo but never did receive the confirmation email. Actually I tried it twice. Where do I gogo for the webinar.

DavidC: (September 03, 2010 6:31am)

Some fuzzy math on those NMLS numbers. You need to take into consideration: -the number of part time LOs who did not bother taking the testing -the number of LOs that went to retail banks -the number of non-producing LOs that failed the test -The number of inactive LOs The pie is smaller and there are definitely less people eating from the pie, but not as great as you guys make it seem. It is like the 80/20 of sales. 80% of your business comes from 20% of your clients. 80% of loans were probably generated from 20% of those original LOs and those guys and gals probably passed the testing already.

LOChicago: (September 03, 2010 6:02am)

Calvin Like the idea maybe congress can even puppetmaster it to guide it to paying down upside-down mortgages thru refinancing activities so the precious @#$%@ banks can be "solvent"...Of course the refi's with seconds and PMI the ones that 70% of the folks can not fit to the refi plus government programs.

rightwinger: (September 03, 2010 5:51am)

The heart of the issue with housing is negative equity. The free market cant work when people are upside down. My CRAP program would take care of that. (Consumer Rescue Action Plan) Allow homeowners to refi or sell at 90% of their current market value. Government guaranteed loans (like any student loan) would carry the negative equity. The homeowner doesnt make their payment, no tax refund. If you remove the negative equity, people can refi and sell and the market can work again. It would cost pennies compared to what the government is doing now with very little risk to the government. It would create an instant refi/purchase boom as no more negative equity to deal with. No more short sales. No more short refi's.

Mtgbrkr1: (September 03, 2010 5:44am)

Ok lets help those who can help themselves... Check out "all regs" and the NEW requirements on employment, if you have been out of the job market and just become re-employed. If your client has been out of the job market, HMM economy, and has again become gainfully employed ,before you can use their Income in qualifying, they have to be on the JOB FOR 6 MONTHS. I personally verified this with FANNIE MAE and one of my lenders confirmed it with Freddie and FHA. By the way the deal I was trying to put together had 800 credit scores, cash in the bank, lowering their monthy payment and oh yeah it is a 47% LTV. Fannie rep said NO EXCEPTIONS! Gotta love the FED.

ilendem: (September 03, 2010 5:24am)

I agree that there are fewer LO's, but many have gone to work for non nmls banks.

Calvin the Airedale: (September 03, 2010 4:52am)

How about a one time tax and penalty holiday for SEP or 401k withdrawls. It would have the potential of drawing half a billion into the economy without adding to the deficit and would have its most immediate effect on small business owners.